[ESIP-all] ROFFS Deepwater Horizon Oil Analysis Update 9/13/2010

Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. fish7 at roffs.com
Tue Sep 14 09:24:28 EDT 2010

	We wanted to update you on what ROFFS 
has been doing regarding the Deepwater Horizon 
oil spill.  On a daily basis we have continued 
mapping the surface currents in the Gulf of 
Mexico that we believe have been affecting the 
distribution of the water that either came into 
contact with the surface oil and most likely came 
in contact with the surface oil water and 
dispersant mixture. Since the amount of surface 
oil in the Gulf of Mexico is very small compared 
with what it had been we have added a new 
component to our work that relates to the 
subsurface plume cloud of oil, dispersants and 
water. We will not go into detail about the 
molecular nature of this cloud plume since we do 
not know its true composition, but the reports 
that we heard from the NOAA - Unified Command 
indicate that the concentrations of oil - 
dispersants are on the order of parts per million 
- parts per billion.  We have been focusing our 
efforts into understanding the movements of the 
ameba like subsurface plume cloud. To this end we 
have been monitoring some of the deeper water 
current measurements in the area where it has 
been suggested that this plume cloud exists. We 
have never seen a map of this plume cloud, but it 
had been described to us a few weeks ago. We have 
requested maps of the plume cloud from many 
sources, but we continue to have nothing.
	While we realize that the surface 
currents and the subsurface currents below the 
thermocline are often de-coupled (i.e., not 
moving in the same direction and not affected by 
the same forces), we are studying the 
relationship between the surface and subsurface 
currents. We hope that we can give guidance to 
the motion of the subsurface cloud plume. 
Knowing the spatial temporal history of the 
surface and subsurface oil - dispersant mixture 
is critical in understanding the effects of the 
oil on the ecosystem.
	We are still concerned about the long 
term effects of the oil - dispersant mixture on 
the ecosystem. We are concerned about the effects 
of the oil that remains on the bottom of the 
ocean and in the sand along the beaches. All of 
the oil is not gone. We continue to hear about 
oil (red globules) coming to the surface along 
the Louisiana coast and rumors of oil elsewhere. 
We read about oil in the bottom sediments.  Not 
all of this information is getting into the 
newspapers and TV reports.  More information is 
needed to be released so that independent 
scientists can evaluate the effects of the oil. 
We understand the issues related to quality 
control, but more information needs to be 
available in easy to use formats.
	Enclosed are our last two analyses for your reading pleasure.

Safe and Successful Fishing,

Mitchell A. Roffer, Ph.D.

Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. (ROFFS)
60 Westover Drive, West Melbourne, Florida 32904
U.S. Toll Free 800 677-7633 and   321.723.5759 / /WWW.ROFFS.COM
Email: fish7 at roffs.com

Every Fishing Trip Is Important!
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